Future Tropical Storm Helena creates hurricane risk for Florida Gulf Coast Warning issued for Florida Keys

 Areas of thunderstorms in the Caribbean are expected to develop into Hurricane Helena and rapidly intensify in the unseasonably warm Gulf of Mexico before hitting the US Gulf Coast as a major hurricane later this week.

The storm has not yet formed, but is expected to soon, prompting the National Hurricane Center to warn of its imminent threat, naming it a potential Tropical Cyclone Nine. Hurricane and tropical storm watches are in effect for parts of Mexico and Cuba. A tropical storm warning was issued for parts of Florida's Dry Tortugas and Keys Monday afternoon. More warnings will be issued across the U.S. in the coming days, with Florida hitting the coast as early as Thursday night.

Florida State immediately began preparations. Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency for 41 of the state's 67 counties ahead of the storm, according to a news release Monday. This step helps speed up preparation and coordination between state and local governments.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is a chaotic storm of rain and thunderstorms moving into the western Caribbean. The stormy weather could bring potentially flooding rain to parts of Central America, Mexico, Cuba and Jamaica as it tries to organize into a tropical system.

Although its exact track and intensity may change, Helena will move north through extremely warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico, which could put it on a collision course with the US Gulf Coast. The National Hurricane Center predicts that Helena will rapidly strengthen and eventually become a Category 3 hurricane in the record-warm Gulf of Mexico, a feat that will become increasingly likely as the world warms from fossil fuel pollution.

Destructive winds and storm surge are possible near where the system eventually makes landfall. The system will also stir up Gulf waters and could create rough surf and dangerous currents across much of the basin, especially later in the week.

The National Hurricane Center says the hurricane will make landfall in the Big Bend, Florida area, but everyone from Florida's Gulf Coast to eastern Louisiana should stay alert this week.

Confidence in the system's exact trajectory will increase once it's built, as predictive models struggle to pinpoint the direction it might go without a central lock. Ensemble forecast models — groupings of many models with small starting differences to show a wide range of results — focused on the eastern Gulf Coast, where coastal conditions are most likely later in the week. When the pieces of the ensemble fit together closely, it means that there is more confidence in the repertoire. This storm is denser along the eastern Gulf Coast, but that's not guaranteed because it hasn't formed yet.

Tampa General Hospital began building a 10-foot flood barrier around the hospital Monday in anticipation of the storm surge and changes in the storm's path because there was no time to prepare. The Level 1 trauma center is adjacent to Hillsborough Bay, making it highly vulnerable to storm surges.

Dustin Pasteur, the hospital's vice president of facilities and construction, said it will take a 60-person crew three days to fully build the barrier around the hospital, and work will continue "unless we see good enough weather to stop." "I can't spend the day waiting."

U.S. Rainfall Potential: While it's too early to know details on other effects, including storm surge and wind, we expect Helena to produce widespread heavy rainfall along its path and east of it.

The heaviest rains are expected in places in the southeast from Thursday to Friday, but there could be some rain as early as Wednesday. These downpours can cause flooding, especially in storm surges and higher elevations.